Backing the winning horse...

Following the US primary elections on the news is at the moment surprisingly entertaining. Polls seem to be based on coin-tosses and any predictions might as well be created by a random-prediction-generator(tm). Still, this doesn't stop the "experts" from weighing in with their opinion about the prospects of the different candidates. Upon closer inspection there seems to be a fairly clear-cut pattern to their analyses and it looks something like this: